My La Liga Predictions for 2025/26

Hello all, welcome back to the blog. Once again, a new La Liga season is upon us, and with it, a set of predictions. What do English media love doing? That’s right. Premier League Predictions. Never La Liga predictions. Well don’t worry. Your avid Liga watcher is here with his educated predictions on how the Spanish Top Flight will go this year. As the most educated one here, I shall lead the way on all things Liga for the next 10 months, right here on La Croqueta.

With all that out of the way, let me take you through my entire league prediction, from 20th to 1st.

20th: Elche

24/25 Finish: 2nd (Segunda)

Manager: Eder Sarabia

One to Watch: Alvaro Rodriguez

In every La Liga season recently, there’s just one team that falls short of all the others, just not on a proper level. Last season, it was Valladolid, 16 points, half the tally of 19th place Las Palmas, 25 points from safety, shipping 7 to Barcelona and Bilbao, and a -64 goal difference, well over 3x the second worst. Almeria was the team before that, and while they finished 19th with 21 points, they only had 10 going into Mid-March, and no wins. Then, it was Elche themselves the year before that, with 25 points, most of which coming in the last stage of the season, and 12 points from 19th. 

Elche will repeat history this year, because this team, to me, still looks like a Segunda level squad. Their most prolific signings were Aleix Febas and Alvaro Rodriguez, and without much help, and a manager who was Barca’s assistant coach during the 8-2 game and flopped at FC Andorra, this team is gonna be a treadmill club, and will definitely be subject to a 6-goal thumping from Barca or Madrid at some point, maybe even multiple. 

19th: Valencia

24/25 Finish: 12th

Manager: Carlos Corberan

One to Watch: Javi Guerra

They can’t keep slipping through the cracks. Surely not. While Valencia experienced a bounce back after the appointment of Carlos Corberan last December, after previously being in a relegation battle, they’ve lost most of their good defensive talent this summer. Giorgi Mamardashvili finally made his move to Liverpool, Cristhian Mosquera moved to Arsenal, and Yarek Gasiorowski was sold to PSV. 

They don’t really have replacements, other than the centerback pairing of Comert and Ozkacar who let in 90 for Valladolid last season. They also signed Jose Copete, who, let’s be real, isn’t going to be enough. They’ll just be too unstable defensively, and are going to see the drop after years and years of mismanagement under Peter Lim. On the bright side, they’ll still get a result in the home match vs Madrid, as usual.

18th: Sevilla

24/25 Finish: 17th

Manager: Matias Almeyda

One to Watch: Dodi Lukebakio

Yes, we will see an incredible sight - two historic La Liga giants relegated in the same season. Just as Valencia, former European regulars - and Europa League kings - Sevilla will see the drop for the first time since 2000. Despite former big name managers such as Julen Lopetegui, Garcia Pimentia, Sanchez Florez, Jorge Sampaoli, and of course, Unai Emery, relative unknown Matias Almeyda has took over. The former AEK, San Jose Earthquake, Chivas, Banfield, and River Plate manager takes his biggest job yet, and I don’t think it’ll be a good one.

La Liga, as a whole, has got better this year than last, and Sevilla have pretty much stayed the same. They let go of Suso, who joins Cadiz, and sign Alfon Gonzalez and Gabriel Suazo on frees, two transfers that don’t move me one bit. It’ll be tight, but Sevilla is done for.

17th: Oviedo

24/25 Finish: 3rd (Segunda)

Manager: Veljko Paunovic

One to Watch: Salomon Rondon

Yes, I think the fairytale story will have a happy ending. At least this season. It’s been a crazy road for Real Oviedo in their return to La Liga for the first time in 24 years. After getting relegated in 2001, they only spent 2 years in the Segunda before going all the way down to the third division, and because of financial issues, had to go all the way to the fourth division. It nearly folded many times, and in 2012/13 asked for shares to keep it alive. Santi Carzola, Juan Mata, Michu, and Adrian, who all played there as youth players, invested money to keep the club afloat. By 2015, they were back in the Segunda, and after a decade in the second division, Oviedo, now with Santi Carzola playing for them (who has his own fairytale story), got promoted back to La Liga through the playoffs, coming back from a 2-0 deficit vs Mirandes. 

Now in La Liga, they look like they have a solid side, at least enough to keep them up,with a bit of magic. Led by veterans Carzola and Salomon Rondon, I think that they can survive, just beating Sevilla. After this season, they have questions to answer, but for now, they should be good.

16th: Real Sociedad

24/25 Finish: 11th

Manager: Sergio Francisco

One to Watch: Goncalo Guedes

The last club who I think will be in a serious relegation fight, Sociedad lost perhaps their two best midfielders - Martin Zubimendi and Jon Ander Olagasti - and still haven’t signed replacements. Luka Sucic is a good midfielder, but they won’t be able to cope without proper midfield stability. While they signed Duje Caleta-Car on loan, he still isn’t enough to replace Nayef Aguerd, and Goncalo Guedes will need a big season to reclaim even a bit of the fear factor he once held. 

New manager Sergio Francisco doesn’t even have any managerial experience beyond reserve clubs and one season for Real Union in the third division. He will be ripped apart at this level, and Sociedad will be lucky not to be joining Sevilla and Valencia as former European regulars going down.

15th: Osasuna

24/25 Finish: 9th

Manager: Alessio Lisci

One to Watch: Ante Budimir

While they won’t be in a relegation battle, this Osasuna side won’t be anything special. They still have Ante Budimir, with 38 La Liga goals in the past 2 seasons, and young talent Aimar Oroz, who I have faith in, but other than that I’m not moved. 

The only interesting signing is the 5 million euro move for Victor Munoz, from Real Madrid, famous for making his Madrid debut in the Clasico in May, and missing a massive chance. I still think he has promise though, I’m interested to see how he does with Osasuna. 

14th: Levante

24/25 Finish: 1st (Segunda)

Manager: Julian Calero

One to Watch: Jon Ander Olagasti

Very high for a newly promoted side these days, I know, but Levante just have that La Liga scruffy team factor, like a Getafe or Vigo, that’ll make them a staple in La Liga for a while, I think. They still have Jose Luis Morales, but other than that a good young team, as well as the previously mentioned Olagasti, who’ll make the midfield his own in 25/26. They’ve signed some good young players on loan, who could propel them to a pretty good finish in their first season back. 

Manager Julian Calero is an experienced lower division manager, with stints for Majadahonda, Burgos, Cartagena, before finally joining Levante last season and winning the Segunda with them. I’ll be very interested to see what he does with his first season in the Spanish top flight.

13th: Espanyol

24/25 Finish: 14th

Manager: Manolo Gonzalez

One to Watch: Tyrhys Dolan

This summer has been a very interesting one for Espanyol, and one of serious change. Joan Garcia, the hero who kept them up last season, was ripped away by the enemy, Barcelona, for the full release clause, nothing Espanyol could do to stop the deal. It would take a great window to stop Espanyol from dropping massively because of that, and it feels like that’s exactly what they’ve had.

They’ve signed some big talent, Roberto Fernandez from Braga, Tyrhys Dolan from Blackburn, a very interesting pickup, Marko Dmitrovic, Ramon Terrats, and many others. I think Espanyol can do a lot with them, and at least for next season they won’t be at risk of dropping down.

12th: Alaves

24/25 Finish: 15th

Manager: Eduardo Coudet

One to Watch: Mariano

Perhaps the Crystal Palace of La Liga, Alaves seem like the most constantly boring team of the division. Boring finishes, boring players, boring matches, and it looks like it’ll continue this year. Even their signings are boring. Carles Alena? Seriously? The man looking to tally up as many La Liga midtable clubs as possible? 

Their only interesting signings are Castilla prospect Youssef Enriquez, whose claim for fame is being on the bench for the May Clasico, and Mariano Diaz, announced as I was making this post. It’s a great name for the nostalgia merchants like me, but after his failed La Liga revival with Sevilla, there’s about as much chance Diaz makes a Pichichi push this season as Einstein.

11th: Mallorca

24/25 Finish: 10th

Manager: Jagoba Arrasate

One to Watch: Pablo Torre

Mallorca are similar to Alaves, but they do have some interesting things about them at times. With La Liga veteran coach Arrasate at the wheel, and who I think may be one of the signings of the summer - Pablo Torre. 

While Torre didn’t get enough time at Barcelona last season, his promise was obvious, and, if given a starting role at Mallorca this season, could easily get more than 15 GA in La Liga this season. They also have proper La Liga strikers Vedat Muriqi and Cyle Larin, who’ll have good seasons again, I’m sure.

10th: Athletic Bilbao

24/25 Finish: 4th

Manager: Ernesto Valverde

One to Watch: Nico Williams

Look, I can explain. Like my explanation with Sevilla, the rest of La Liga is improving. Bilbao would have likely been lower if they’d lost Nico Williams to Barca, but they didn’t, to their credit. However, their signings are also lacklustre. Of course, we all know their self-imposed transfer restriction, leading them to making the smart signing instead of just spending on whoever, but it just doesn’t move me. 

As the rest of La Liga improves, Bilbao is staying the same, and I see Nico Williams as a player who’ll we’ll just hear of every two years for the Euros and World Cup, and won’t really contribute much to Bilbao’s success. His 24/25 was really lacklustre, and a lot of his promise was already derived on the fact that he might move to Barca one day, which is looking more unlikely than it ever has.

9th: Celta Vigo

24/25 Finish: 7th

Manager: Claudio Giraldez

One to Watch: Ferran Jutgla

You’re telling me that, Vigo, who already had Iago Aspas and who Barca could barely beat anyway, have also signed Barca killer Bryan Zaragoza and obvious future Barca killer Ferran Jutgla. Barca have only won twice away against Celta in the past 9 years, and now they’ll start a front line of Zaragoza-Jutgla-Aspas? It’s over.

Jokes aside, this is a pretty good squad in general. They improved, and even though their position won’t say it, it’ll be a pretty good season for them. Vigo is just well run, and they look like they aren’t leaving La Liga anytime soon.

8th: Girona

24/25 Finish: 16th

Manager: Michel

One to Watch: Thomas Lemar

Girona, Girona, Girona. One of La Liga’s craziest teams. From a title hunt in 23/24 until March, then losing the catalysts, Dovbyk, Savio, Garcia, Couto, Eric, the 24/25 season was a horrible one for them. 33rd in the Champions League, 16th in La Liga and nearly going down, they’ve still decided to keep faith in Michel, the man who got them there. 

They have promise, and I feel that they can bounce back, and they will. 8th place and a European push will be a very satisfactory season for them, and one of the factors that’ll get them there is their new shiny loan, Thomas Lemar. He’s the make or break player for them, and if he does do well like I believe he will, Girona should have a great bounceback year to about where they should be.

7th: Getafe

24/25 Finish: 13th

Manager: Jose Bordalas

One to Watch: Borja Mayoral

This year will be the year of Getafe. The team that personifies La Liga midtable clubs, Getafe is back and I feel they can finally push for European spots again, like in the late 2010s. Borja Mayoral is one of the best midtable strikers in La Liga, and Jose Bordalas has his own style implanted in this side. 

They’ve made some good new signings like Juanmi, Mario Martin, Abqar, Femenia, this team has everything they need to succeed and make a European push, if they can put everything together.

6th: Rayo

24/25 Finish: 8th

Manager: Inigo Perez

One to Watch: Isi Palazon

Very high, I know, but this year will be the one Rayo Vallecano puts themselves on the map at last. After a high finish, they’re looking like a very good overall unit, and definitely one that can make a push for this position. 

Inigo Perez is a manager who I rate, and Rayo is a very good team. They’ll make a good run in the Conference League this year, and they may become one of the non-big 3 giants of the new La Liga era. It’ll also be interesting to see Ettienne Eto’o, son of Barca legend Samuel Eto’o, and his La Liga exploits, if he even gets any game time.

5th: Real Betis

24/25 Finish: 6th

Manager: Manuel Pellegrini

One to Watch: Rodrigo Riquelme

The first UCL position, probably, Betis is going to do very well this year. Even though they couldn’t sign Antony permanently, Betis have got a player near just as good in Rodrigo Riquelme, who’s bound to be one of the best signings in the league this year. 

Manuel Pellegrini is back for season 6 at the helm of Betis. One of La Liga’s most tenured managers, the Chilean has spent 14 years in the Spanish top flight, and is the perfect man to finally lead Betis back to the Champions League for the first time since 2005. Be prepared for a great season, Betis fans.

4th: Villarreal

24/25 Finish: 5th

Manager: Marcelino

One to Watch: Alberto Moleiro

In a very similar situation to Betis, Villarreal wins the ‘best of the rest’ award in La Liga for 25/26. Villarreal have made some big signings this year, some that it’s not in the best taste to talk about, but one that may be the best signing in La Liga this year - Alberto Moleiro. The youngster pretty much had to leave Las Palmas after their relegation, and I believe he’ll turn into one of La Liga’s best young players, and could have a price tag of well over 60 million on his back by 2026, with interest from clubs like Man United, Liverpool, Spurs, and many others.

Apart from Moleiro, Thomas Partey is, a player, Santiago Mourino could do well, Rafa Marin is actually a really solid loan, and Tajon Buchanan could finally reach his potential with Villarreal. I can’t wait to see this team, as it looks really exciting once again.

3rd: Real Madrid

24/25 Finish: 2nd

Manager: Xabi Alonso

One to Watch: Kylian Mbappe

What’s the point in doing predictions if you go with the safe option each time? To be clear, I’m not saying Madrid will be bad, they won’t be. I’m saying the Top Two will be better. I think Madrid will get at least 87 points this season, which is usually a tally that can win you the league. However, this will be like the 2016 title race, where Atleti, despite getting 88 points and ending 24 points above fourth placed Villarreal, still ended third. Madrid will, I believe, still have a very good chance of winning the title until at least the May Clasico in Barcelona. It’ll be like last year, with Barca’s win all but eliminating Madrid from contention.

Xabi Alonso will end up having decent performances in his first year with Madrid, but the league title isn’t to be for Los Blancos. Mbappe, I believe will regress, but we’ll get to him a little later, I think his relationship with Vini over the season will deteriorate, but overall the team will look better than they did last year. Still, a tough finish with many questions that’ll have to be asked for Madrid in 2026.

2nd: Atlético Madrid

24/25 Finish: 3rd

Manager: Diego Simeone

One to Watch: Julian Alvarez

I can’t ignore the incredible transfer window had by Simeone’s boys. They still got 76 points last year, and they’ve made so many smart signings. Baena, Cardoso, Almada, Ruggieri, and Hancko are all perfect for Atleti’s style. 

Simeone’s boys are well oiled machines by now, and I predict a 90-point season from these boys, and they’ll push for the title until the very last day. I think Baena and Almada specifically will work incredibly well with Alvarez and Griezmann, and they’ll be an offensive juggernaut scoring 4 goals in at least 8 matches this season. There WILL be a match between Barca and Atleti where at least 7 are scored between the two this season.

1st: Barcelona

24/25 Finish: 1st

Manager: Hansi Flick

One to Watch: Lamine Yamal

Call me delusional, but I believe that your defending champions will be La Liga’s first repeat champions since Valverde’s Barca in 2018 & 2019, which by the time Barca are crowned will be seven years ago. However, let me say this. If Barca are to be champions, they absolutely cannot have a stretch like we saw from November-January last season in La Liga. Any stretch of 1 win in 8 games will immediately put them out of contention, in my opinion. However, I don’t think they’ll have one of those stretches.

Despite the shock departure of Inigo Martinez while I was writing this, Barca as a team has got better this season, and with Andreas Christensen having a fully fit season can replace him. Lamine Yamal will finally start scoring and will hit 20 league goals for the first time, becoming the youngest to do so in La Liga history. They’ll likely have to win it on the last two matchdays, but they’ll squeak it over the line, just.

Other Predictions

Pichichi: Kylian Mbappe (25 goals)

While he has reduced productivity from last season, Kylian Mbappe will take home his second Pichichi since arriving to La Liga, beating out Lewandowski and Yamal for the award. Too bad Pichichi can’t win you La Liga, Kylian.

Best Player: Lamine Yamal (20 goals 18 assists)

Taking the award from Raphinha, who’ll still have a good season, Yamal will announce himself on the scene this year in La Liga as a juggernaut. 38 goal contributions and another Ballon D’Or run in 2026. 

Best Signing: Alberto Moleiro

There’ll be some competition here, but I think Moleiro will end up being La Liga’s best signing of 2025/26. The youngster will get at least 20 GA and as previously mentioned, massive price tag on his back next summer. However, the award could go to Alex Baena, Joan Garcia, Dean Huijsen, or Pablo Torre, all of whom I think will absolutely thrive.

Those are my La Liga predictions for the 2025/26 Campaign. We have a lot of bold predictions on here for sure, and this has the potential to be the best - or worst - piece of work I’ve ever done. I can’t wait for the season, and then to review my picks at the end of the season. We’re on the eve of a very exciting season. I’ll be here with you all for all the twists and turns.